NAHB Housing Projections, Oct. 2013 – Top 20 States

The housing market has improved over the past year, and is expected to continue to grow in 2014. As the economy enters the fourth year of a modest recovery, it’s expected to see a strong demand for home ownership, as buyers who may have been competing with investors and facing an extreme shortage of available housing return from the sidelines. It’s no surprise that Texas is projected to have the greatest increase in new single family homes built in 2014. Despite the huge projected increase in growth, the state will not  be able to meet buyer demand due to a constrained supply of homes which is currently at 4 month inventory level.

The average for 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates will rise to 5.3 percent but will still remain at historically low levels.

The wildcards for 2014 include federal, fiscal, monetary and housing policies – such as the mortgage interest deduction and mortgage finance reform – as well as housing supply and the actions of the Federal Reserve, which will ensure a higher rate environment.